A COMPARISON OF MODELLING TECHNIQUES FOR LONG TERM SPACE INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING
- Paper ID
IAF-94-705
- author
- company
University of Bristol
- country
United Kingdom
- year
1994
- abstract
An understanding of space industrialisation as means to overcome terrestrial limits to economic and population growth has existed since 1911. Generally the arguments for action were based on simple extrapolation of existing trends and the assessment of the impact of space industrialisation was qualitative and vague. During the 1970's, more quantitative evaluations were begun using computer based global dynamic models. These models proved to have some problems when used to derive specific conclusions about the targets for current space programmes. An alternative approach was developed to obtain long term targets for the space infrastructure derived from scenarios. A problem with both global dynamic and scenario methodologies is the unpredictability of the future which means neither provides proof that the development of the space infrastructure is necessary. To provide an insight into the need for action a Probabilistic modelling methodology has been developed. Despite the individual successes of all these modelling techniques, no single technique provides both the rationale and the targets for development of the space infrastructure. All three methods are required to obtain a complete and detailed understanding of the role space plays in maintaining industrial growth.